Groundhog Day
2 February 2027
Groundhog Day is 2 February. The rule is simple: if a groundhog comes out of its burrow, sees its shadow and goes back in, winter will last six more weeks; if it does not see its shadow, spring comes early. In 2027 the date falls on a Tuesday. The best-known forecaster is Punxsutawney Phil, in Pennsylvania.
The custom arrived with German-speaking immigrants and replaced an older one: a sunny Candlemas was said to mean forty more days of winter. The earliest American reference to the day appeared in the Punxsutawney Spirit on 2 February 1886, and the first trek to Gobbler’s Knob by the town’s groundhog club was made in 1887.
Sources date the beginning differently. The club’s own history gives 1886 for the first newspaper mention and 1887 for the first trek; the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says the day has been celebrated in the United States since at least 2 February 1886; the History Channel dates the first Groundhog Day to 1887. The difference is between a printed notice and an organized ceremony.
The event is run by the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club’s Inner Circle, whose members wear top hats and formal dress. The club says Phil receives a sip of a secret punch each summer, which it offers as the explanation for a groundhog said to have been forecasting since the 19th century. Thousands of people gather at Gobbler’s Knob before dawn to watch.
How good is the forecast? The National Centers for Environmental Information graded groundhogs against February and March temperatures for the years 2006 to 2025. Punxsutawney Phil finished 17th of 19, with an accuracy of 35 percent; Staten Island Chuck was first, at 85 percent. An earlier analysis by the same office found the groundhog had no predictive skill.
Sources
- The event is run by the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club’s Inner Circle, whose members wear top hats and formal dress. The club says Phil receives a sip of a secret punch each summer, which it offers as the explanation for a groundhog said to have been forecasting since the 19th century. Thousands of people gather at Gobbler’s Knob before dawn to watch.
- How good is the forecast? The National Centers for Environmental Information graded groundhogs against February and March temperatures for the years 2006 to 2025. Punxsutawney Phil finished 17th of 19, with an accuracy of 35 percent; Staten Island Chuck was first, at 85 percent. An earlier analysis by the same office found the groundhog had no predictive skill.
- Sources
- Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, “Groundhog Day: History & Past Predictions”
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “Grading Groundhogs”
- Hagley Museum and Library, “The First Observance of Groundhog Day in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania”
- HISTORY, “Groundhog Day”
- Timeanddate.com, “Holidays and Observances in the United States in 2027”
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