September 26, 2026

Smoking halved. Nicotine did not.

IrisIris

The question

Fewer Swedes smoke cigarettes than ever. In 2024, 5.4 percent of the population aged 16–84 said they smoke daily [1]. Cigarette consumption has fallen by 49 percent since 2003: 538 cigarettes per person aged 15 and over during 2024 [2].

So smoking fell. Nicotine did not. In 2024, 22 percent of men and 10 percent of women said they use snus daily, and e-cigarettes and nicotine pouches are used most by people aged 16–29 [3][4]. The question is where the nicotine went.

Then: the pipe, the plant, the powder

Nicotine is older than the name. In a smoking pipe from Flint River in northern Alabama, dated to 1685–1530 BC, archaeologists found nicotine in the residue. It is the earliest evidence of tobacco in southeastern North America [5].

Tobacco was ritual and medicine long before it became a habit. In December 1492 Columbus reached Hispaniola, today Haiti and the Dominican Republic [6]. His men were given dried leaves as a gift by the islanders, and in 1497 the monk Ramón Pané saw priests draw a powder into their noses through a fork-shaped tube [7].

The name came with an ambassador. Jean Nicot, the French envoy in Lisbon, sent tobacco to Catherine de’ Medici in Paris in 1560, and Linnaeus later gave the genus his name: Nicotiana [8].

In 1828, nicotine became a substance. Wilhelm Heinrich Posselt and Karl Ludwig Reimann isolated it from tobacco leaves in Heidelberg and described it as a poison [9]. After that, nicotine could be measured and dosed.

Sweden: from snuff to prilla

The word snus is first mentioned in Sweden in 1637. In a customs document, snuff is brought into the country from Borgå in Finland. It was not the snus we mean today [7].

In the early 1800s, the practice changed form. Instead of sniffing the powder, Swedes placed a pinch under the lip [7]. In 1822 Jacob Fredrik Ljunglöf took over a tobacco firm in Stockholm and launched Ljunglöfs No. 1, the snus that became Ettan [7]. The detail comes from the manufacturer’s own history.

The curve has turned before: in 1919, 7,000 tonnes of snus were sold in a country of six million people, and then the cigarettes took over. Portion snus arrived in the 1970s and turned the curve upwards again [7].

When Sweden joined the EU in 1995, the country kept its snus. It is banned in the rest of the union but permitted in Sweden [10].

The campaigns

Smoking was pushed back with the same tools as in other countries: price, information and availability.

In 1994 the work environment became smoke-free [11]. On 1 January 1997, tobacco advertising was banned in newspapers, radio and television, and on 1 July 2005, in practice all marketing of tobacco to consumers was banned [12]. On 1 June 2005, smoking disappeared from restaurants and indoor serving establishments. Separate smoking rooms were allowed [11].

On 20 May 2016, the EU Tobacco Products Directive began to apply: pictorial warnings on 65 percent of the front and back of packs, a ban on packs with fewer than 20 cigarettes and on flavours that hide the taste of tobacco [13]. Menthol was not banned until 20 May 2020 [14]. On 1 July 2019, outdoor serving areas became smoke-free, sales became subject to licence, and snus tins had to contain at least 20 portions [15].

The price has done its part. The tax on one cigarette was 1.27 kronor in 2011. From 1 January 2026 it is 2.08 kronor plus 1 percent of the retail price. In a pack that costs 70 kronor, 42.30 kronor is tax [16].

But the price list has one exception. On 1 November 2024, the tax on snus was cut by 20 percent, at the same time as the tax on cigarettes was raised by 9 percent [17]. In January 2024, the snus tax was 526 kronor per kilo. After the cut, 421, and in 2026 it is 435 [16].

And the goal itself has been rewritten. In the budget bill for 2025, the government changed the overarching goal of tobacco policy: from reduced tobacco use to reduced medical and social harm, and the goal was widened to cover all nicotine products. In its own instruction to the Public Health Agency, the government writes that cigarettes and smoking tobacco pose a greater health risk than smoke-free products such as snus, and that it can be seen as a positive development “that more people use snus at the same time as fewer and fewer smoke” [18].

What came instead

Every one of the products that carry nicotine today is younger than the campaigns against cigarettes.

The e-cigarette. Hon Lik, a pharmacist in China, took out a patent on an electronic cigarette in 2003, and in 2004 the first mass-produced model, Ruyan, appeared in Shenyang [19][35]. The tobacco companies had the technology earlier: Philip Morris worked on nicotine aerosols from 1990 and had a working capillary aerosol generator in 1994, according to the company’s own documents [20]. The invention came from outside. The market did not.

Heated tobacco. Philip Morris launched IQOS in Japan and Italy in November 2014 [21].

The nicotine pouch. White snus came to Sweden in 2016 [2]. What was described as snus without tobacco is now the fastest-growing segment. In 2024, four of ten tins sold were white [22], and between 2016 and 2024 the total snus consumption rose by 40 percent measured by weight and by 100 percent measured in number of tins [2].

The same product had its breakthrough in the United States under a different name. ZYN was tested there in 2014 and became nationally available in 2019 [23]. On 16 January 2025, the US Food and Drug Administration authorised the marketing of 20 ZYN products. They were the first nicotine pouches the agency had ever cleared [24]. In June 2026, the FDA went further and allowed a risk comparison in the marketing: “Using ZYN instead of cigarettes puts you at a lower risk of mouth cancer, heart disease, lung cancer, stroke, emphysema, and chronic bronchitis” [25]. The wording is the agency’s, not the company’s.

The money followed the products. Philip Morris bought Swedish Match in 2022 for 161.2 billion kronor, about 16 billion dollars at the exchange rate of the time [26]. In the company’s own reporting for 2024, the smoke-free business accounts for about 39 percent of net revenues, oral product volume rose by nearly 28 percent, measured in cans, and the company counts 38.6 million users of its smoke-free products in 95 countries [27]. These are the party’s own figures.

Exports are part of the same picture. The industry body Livsmedelsföretagen counts 3,300 employees in the snus and nicotine industry and exports worth 6.9 billion kronor in 2025 [28]. A party figure, from an employers’ organisation.

What the numbers show

Smoking is falling: in Sweden from 14 percent in 2006 to 5 percent in 2024 [1], and in the EU from 28 percent in 2012 to 24 percent, according to the Commission’s evaluation of tobacco legislation [29].

The nicotine remains, and it is growing in the youngest groups. Among women aged 16–29, the share who use e-cigarettes daily or occasionally went from 2 percent in 2020 to 13 percent in 2024. In the same group, daily use of nicotine pouches went from 10 percent in 2022 to 15 percent in 2024 [4][3]. Across the whole population, 4 percent use e-cigarettes — about a quarter of them daily — and 5 percent use nicotine pouches daily [4][3].

The same pattern appears in school. In CAN’s national school survey 2025, 21 percent in year 9 and 36 percent in the second year of upper secondary school said they had used tobacco or nicotine in the past month. Among all pupils, 26 percent in year 9 and 40 percent in upper secondary year 2 have used only white snus [30].

Compare countries and the picture is clear. Eurostat measures the share in the EU who use tobacco or related products daily: 16.5 percent in 2025, down from 17.5 percent in 2022. Sweden is second highest in the union at 23.9 percent, after Bulgaria. The Netherlands is at 9.9 percent and Ireland at 11.7 [31]. Sweden thus has one of Europe’s lowest smoking rates and almost the highest total nicotine use.

Globally, the WHO counts 1.2 billion tobacco users in 2024, down from 1.38 billion in 2000. For the first time, the organisation estimates the number of vapers: over 100 million, of whom 15 million are children aged 13 to 15 [32]. In May 2026, the WHO published its first report on nicotine pouches and at the same time warned countries against following the Swedish model, according to Tobaksfakta’s account of Politico [33].

The caveats belong here. CAN’s figures are built on tax revenue and therefore measure sales, not who uses the product. Self-reporting underestimates use, most for cigarettes, and Swedish sales include cigarettes and snus that Norwegians buy in Sweden [2]. CAN’s estimate of e-cigarettes and white snus also starts only in 2021 [2]. How smoking has fallen since 2003 can therefore be followed year by year. How Sweden’s total nicotine use has changed over the same period cannot.

What happens now is partly decided in Brussels. In July 2025, the European Commission proposed that nicotine pouches be covered for the first time by a common EU minimum tax: 25 percent of the retail price or 71.50 euro per kilo from 2030, and 50 percent or 143 euro per kilo from 2032 [34]. Because this is a tax question, unanimity among all 27 member states is required, and the Commission has said at the same time that it intends to put forward a proposal to amend the tobacco legislation before the end of 2026 [29].

Sources

  1. Folkhälsomyndigheten, Living habits – Results for the follow-up of public health policy target area 6 (National Public Health Survey Health on Equal Terms), 2024.
    https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/pubreader/pdfview/121077?browserprint=1
  2. Ramstedt, M., The total consumption of tobacco and nicotine products in Sweden 2003–2024, CAN Report 238, November 2025.
    https://www.can.se/app/uploads/2025/11/can-rapport-238-den-totala-konsumtionen-av-tobaks-och-nikotinprodukter-i-sverige-2003-2024.pdf
  3. Folkhälsomyndigheten, Snus use in Sweden (National Public Health Survey Health on Equal Terms), updated 10 June 2026.
    https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/vara-amnesomraden/andts/anvandning-och-omfattning-av-andts-i-befolkningen/anvandning-av-tobaks-och-nikotinprodukter2/snusning-i-sverige/
  4. Folkhälsomyndigheten, E-cigarette use (vaping) in Sweden (National Public Health Survey Health on Equal Terms), updated 10 June 2026.
    https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/vara-amnesomraden/andts/anvandning-och-omfattning-av-andts-i-befolkningen/anvandning-av-tobaks-och-nikotinprodukter2/e-cigarettsrokning-vejpning-i-sverige/
  5. Carmody, S., Davis, J., Tadi, S., Sharp, J.S., Hunt, R.K. and Russ, J., “Evidence of tobacco from a Late Archaic smoking tube recovered from the Flint River site in southeastern North America”, Journal of Archaeological Science: Reports 21 (2018), pp. 904–910.
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jasrep.2018.05.013
  6. Encyclopaedia Britannica, Hispaniola and Christopher Columbus: The first voyage.
    https://www.britannica.com/place/Hispaniola
  7. Swedish Match, The history of snus. The manufacturer’s own history.
    https://www.swedishmatch.com/sv/Var-verksamhet/rokfria-produkter/Snusets-historia/
  8. “[The tobacco in the light of history and medicine]”, PubMed record, PMID 25769236.
    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25769236/
  9. Jiloha, R.C., “Biological basis of tobacco addiction: Implications for smoking-cessation treatment”, Indian Journal of Psychiatry 2010 (PMC3025154).
    https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3025154/
  10. Tobaksfakta, Tobacco policy in Sweden and the EU.
    https://tobaksfakta.se/kategori/tobakspolitik/tobakspolitik-i-sverige-och-eu
  11. Government bill 2003/04:65, Smoke-free serving environments (with SFS 2004:485).
    https://www.riksdagen.se/sv/dokument-och-lagar/dokument/proposition/rokfria-serveringsmiljoer_gr0365/
  12. Tobacco Act (1993:581), consolidated text with amendments, Swedish Parliament.
    https://www.riksdagen.se/sv/dokument-och-lagar/dokument/svensk-forfattningssamling/tobakslag-1993581_sfs-1993-581/
  13. European Commission, Product regulation – Tobacco (Tobacco Products Directive 2014/40/EU).
    https://health.ec.europa.eu/tobacco/product-regulation_en
  14. European Commission, 10 key changes for tobacco products sold in the EU, press release 19 May 2016.
    https://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-16-1762_en.htm
  15. Tobaksfakta, The Riksdag passed a new tobacco act, 12 December 2018.
    https://tobaksfakta.se/riksdagen-tog-ny-tobakslag
  16. Skatteverket, Tax rates for tobacco, including the table of tax rates for earlier years.
    https://www.skatteverket.se/foretag/skatterochavdrag/punktskatter/tobaksskatt/skattesatserfortobak.4.46ae6b26141980f1e2d4664.html
  17. Government, bill 2023/24:120, Adjusted tax on tobacco and nicotine (April 2024).
    https://www.regeringen.se/rattsliga-dokument/proposition/2024/04/prop.-202324120
  18. Government, Assignment to the Public Health Agency and the National Board of Health and Welfare to produce a basis for following up the goal for tobacco and nicotine policy, S2025/01796, 29 October 2025.
    https://regeringen.se/regeringsuppdrag/2025/10/uppdrag-till-folkhalsomyndigheten-och-socialstyrelsen-att-ta-fram-underlag-for-uppfoljning-av-malet-for-tobaks–och-nikotinpolitiken
  19. Boseley, S., “Hon Lik invented the e-cigarette to quit smoking – but now he’s a dual user”, The Guardian, 9 June 2015.
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/jun/09/hon-lik-e-cigarette-inventor-quit-smoking-dual-user
  20. Dutra, L.M., Grana, R. and Glantz, S.A., “Philip Morris research on precursors to the modern e-cigarette since 1990”, Tobacco Control, December 2017; 26(e2):e97–e105 (PMC5432409).
    https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5432409/
  21. Philip Morris International, Philip Morris International, PMI Japan – overview: “In November 2014, PMI officially launched IQOS … in the pilot markets of Nagoya, Japan, and Milan, Italy.”.
    https://www.pmi.com/markets/japan/en/overview
  22. CAN, Snus use is becoming more common in Sweden, press release 27 November 2025.
    https://via.tt.se/pressmeddelande/4204417/att-snusa-blir-allt-vanligare-i-sverige?publisherId=3237328&lang=sv
  23. Lyu, J.C., Ozga, J.E., Stanton, C.A., Hrywna, M., Ganz, O. and Cornacchione Ross, J., “Advertising the Leading US Nicotine Pouch Brand: A Content Analysis of ZYN Advertisements from 2019–2023”, Tobacco Control, published 7 May 2025 (PMC12379097).
    https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12379097/
  24. U.S. Food and Drug Administration, FDA Authorizes Marketing of 20 ZYN Nicotine Pouch Products after Extensive Scientific Review, 16 January 2025.
    https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-authorizes-marketing-20-zyn-nicotine-pouch-products-after-extensive-scientific-review
  25. U.S. Food and Drug Administration, FDA Authorizes 20 ZYN Nicotine Pouches to Be Marketed with Specific Modified Risk Claim, 30 June 2026.
    https://www.fda.gov/tobacco-products/ctp-newsroom/fda-authorizes-20-zyn-nicotine-pouches-be-marketed-specific-modified-risk-claim
  26. Swedish Match, Statement by the Board of Directors of Swedish Match AB in relation to the public cash offer by Philip Morris Holland Holdings B.V., 11 May 2022.
    https://www.swedishmatch.com/Media/Pressreleases-and-news/Press-releases/2022/statement-by-the-board-of-directors-of-swedish-match-ab-in-relation-to-the-public-cash-offer-by-philip-morris-holland-holdings-b.v/
  27. Philip Morris International, Philip Morris International Reports 2024 Fourth-Quarter & Full-Year Results, 6 February 2025. The company’s own reporting.
    https://www.pmi.com/media-center/press-releases/press-details?newsId=28366
  28. Livsmedelsföretagen, New report: The snus industry creates 10,000 Swedish jobs and exports for nearly 7 billion kronor, August 2026. The industry association’s own report.
    https://www.livsmedelsforetagen.se/nyheter/ny-rapport-snusindustrin-skapar-10-000-svenska-jobb-och-exporterar-for-nara-7-miljarder-kronor/
  29. European Commission, Commission evaluation of the EU tobacco control framework, IP/26/771, and Daily News 22/05/2026 (mex_26_1146) on the revision of the Tobacco Products Directive and the Tobacco Advertising Directive.
    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_26_771
  30. CAN, CAN’s national school survey 2025, report 239, the chapter on Tobacco and nicotine by Martina Zetterqvist.
    https://www.can.se/publikationer/cans-nationella-skolundersokning-2025/
  31. Eurostat, 1 in 6 people use tobacco or related products daily, statistics news 5 August 2026 (2025 data).
    https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20260805-1
  32. WHO/PAHO, WHO tobacco trends report: 1 in 5 adults still addicted to tobacco, 6 October 2025, on the report WHO global report on trends in prevalence of tobacco use 2000–2024 and projections 2025–2030.
    https://www.paho.org/en/news/6-10-2025-who-tobacco-trends-report-1-5-adults-still-addicted-tobacco
  33. Tobaksfakta, WHO warns about Sweden and white snus, 25 May 2026, referring to Politico.
    https://tobaksfakta.se/who-varnar-for-sverige-och-det-vita-snuset/
  34. European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS), Revision of the Tobacco Taxation Directive, briefing 2025, on the Commission’s proposal COM(2025) 580 of 16 July 2025.
    https://europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2025/775907/EPRS_BRI(2025)775907_EN.pdf
  35. Dockrell, M., Morrison, R., Bauld, L. and McNeill, A., “E-Cigarettes: Prevalence and Attitudes in Great Britain”, Nicotine & Tobacco Research, 2013; 15(10):1737–1744 (PMC3768337).
    https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3768337/

All links opened on 26 September 2026.

This article is a translation of the Swedish original: Rökningen halverades. Nikotinet gjorde det inte.